(Bloomberg) — Oil edged higher toward $64 a barrel as traders monitored a patchwork recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic a year to the day since futures for the U.S. benchmark went negative.West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% in Asia after closing modestly higher on Monday. In the U.S., refinery runs climbed to the highest in over a year as economic activity picked up, but oil demand in India is suffering amid a brutal fresh wave of Covid-19 infections. The dollar fell for a sixth straight session on Monday, boosting the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.Crude is up more than 30% in 2021 as investors bet the reopening of economies will stoke consumption and keep draining global inventories. As demand picks up, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are planning a cautious return of some supply from next month. The OPEC+ grouping may skip a full-scale ministerial meeting planned for next week, possibly indicating members don’t see much need to revise current strategy.“If prices sustain in the current band, they wouldn’t want to make any changes to what’s been agreed for May-July,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. Still, “crude appears to be under-pricing the risk of a demand slowdown in India and Europe countering gains in the U.S.,” she said.Oil’s forward curve suggests growing confidence, with the widely watched spread between WTI’s contracts for December this year and 2022 at the widest backwardation in about a month. That’s a bullish pattern, with prices for the final month of 2021 more than $4 a barrel above those a year further out. Brent’s prompt spread is also backwardated, with a gap of 61 cents a barrel.A year ago today, the global oil market faced an unprecedented crisis, with WTI ending at -$37.63 a barrel. Prices went negative after lockdowns savaged demand and producers Saudi Arabia and Russia had flooded the market in a price war. A restoration of OPEC+ unity marked by deep supply cuts, and the development of vaccines, helped prices to stage a steady recovery.At present, OPEC+ has decided to revive just over 2 million barrels a day of the 8 million it’s been keeping offline, with the supply to be returned in stages over the three months to July. If the ministerial gathering is scrapped, the coalition may go ahead with just a monitoring committee meeting on April 28.Later Tuesday, investors across markets will track a high-profile speech from China’s President Xi Jinping at the Boao Forum on Asia. The address is expected to touch on the risks and challenges that the world is facing, and what solutions China can offer to promote development and prosperity.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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